India’s economic trajectory over the last decade

India’s economic trajectory over the last decade has evolved significantly, shifting from macroeconomic vulnerability to global leadership.

1. Morgan Stanley's "Fragile Five" (2013)

In August 2013, a financial analyst at Morgan Stanley coined the term "Fragile Five"to represent vulnerable emerging economies, grouping India alongside Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia.

• The Reason: These countries were running high Current Account Deficits (CAD)and depended heavily on unreliable foreign capital inflows to fund economic growth. 
• The Trigger: When the US Federal Reserve hinted at tapering its Quantitative Easing program ("taper tantrum"), global funds exited emerging markets rapidly, causing the Indian Rupee to depreciate severely. 

2. Foreign Credit Ratings in 2013

In 2013, India's sovereign credit ratings sat at the lowest possible notch of investment grade, hovering right above "junk" status:

• Standard & Poor's (S&P): BBB- with a Negative outlook.
• Fitch Ratings: BBB- (revised from Negative to Stable in June 2013).
• Moody’s Investors Service: Baa3 with a Stable outlook. [7, 8, 9, 10] 

3. GDP Growth After 2014

Following 2014, India implemented several major structural overhauls—including the Goods and Services Tax (GST), banking sector clean-ups, digitization via the India Stack, and heavy capital expenditure on infrastructure. Apart from the sharp technical contraction caused by the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, India rebounded fiercely, consistently clocking annual growth rates between 6.5% and 8.2% to become the world’s fastest-growing major economy. 

4. Gradual Improvements by Rating Agencies

International agencies initially kept India at its baseline rating for a decade due to high public debt. However, steady fiscal performance and robust post-pandemic growth led to visible shifts:

• S&P Global: Upgraded India's outlook significantly, officially raising its sovereign rating in August 2025 to BBB with a Stable outlook.
• Japan's Rating and Investment Information (R&I): Upgraded India to BBB+ in September 2025.
• Morningstar DBRS: Upgraded India to BBB. 

5. Top 5 Countries with Best GDP Growth & Best Sovereign Ratings

• Top 5 Major Growth Economies: Reflecting recent cycles, the leading major expansions are dominated by India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and China.
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• Top 5 Sovereign Rated Nations: The rare elite economies maintaining the absolute highest "AAA" credit ratingacross major Western agencies include Singapore, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands.

6. Yesterday's Moody's Prediction

On Friday, 18 September 2026, Moody’s raised India’s real GDP growth forecast to 7% (up from its previous 6% estimate) for the current fiscal year

• Moody’s highlighted that the Indian economy has shown remarkable resilienceagainst global macro shocks arising from geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
• It noted that the expansion is heavily backed by stronger private consumption, robust domestic investments, and manufacturing activities. The agency still retained its long-term Baa3 rating with a stable outlook. 

7. Historic Announcement by the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR)

On 2 September 2026, the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR) upgraded India’s sovereign credit rating to "A-"with a stable outlook.

• This marked a historic milestone: it is the first time in 35 years that a global rating agency returned India to the elite "A" category club.
• JCR stated that the upgrade directly reflects India's solid macroeconomic growth, effective government policy implementation, and a drastically strengthened domestic financial system with bad bank loans dropping below 2%. 

8. Appreciations from Top World Leaders

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership style, economic clarity, and strategic governance have been praised openly by major global counterparts over his tenure:

Joe Biden (USA): Commended Modi’s leadership in global forums like the Quad, emphasizing his vision for technology cooperation and democratic synergy.

Giorgia Meloni (Italy): Publicly referred to Modi as the "most loved leader around the world" during multilateral summits, praising his decisive leadership style.

Anthony Albanese (Australia): Famously called PM Modi "The Boss" during a massive community reception in Sydney, noting his remarkable ability to connect with people and execute vast development plans.

Emmanuel Macron (France): Has repeatedly lauded Modi’s role in securing strategic stability, international climate pacts, and defense collaborations.

9. Diplomatic Transitions in the Last Decade

India's foreign policy transitioned from balancing non-alignment to active multi-alignment, drastically elevating its global footprint:

• Strategic Partnerships: Deepened defense and technology integrations with the US and Europe while simultaneously steering key global south leadership.
• Middle East Reset: Successfully engineered a historic breakthrough in ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, moving beyond energy dependencies to sign comprehensive trade pacts.
• Global Multiplex: Utilized its G20 Presidency to voice concerns for emerging and underdeveloped countries while spearheading international alliances like the International Solar Alliance and the Global Biofuels Alliance.