How Congress Party Failed Gradually

HISTORICAL REPORT: THE INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (1885 TO PRESENT)

1. Origins and Pre-Independence Foundation (1885–1947)

• Establishment (1885): Founded at Gokuldas Tejpal Sanskrit College in Bombay (December 28–31, 1885) by retired civil servant Allan Octavian Hume, along with Dinshaw Wacha and Dadabhai Naoroji. Womesh Chandra Bonnerjee presided over the first session of 72 delegates.
• The Moderate Phase (1885–1905): Focused on administrative reforms, legislative council expansion, and economic critiques of British exploitation (such as Dadabhai Naoroji’s "Drain of Wealth" theory) using petitions, legal means, and constitutional dialogue.
• The Extremist Phase and Surat Split (1905–1916): Triggered by the 1905 Partition of Bengal. Radical leaders like Bal Gangadhar Tilak, Bipin Chandra Pal, and Lala Lajpat Rai (Lal-Bal-Pal) advocated Swadeshi, boycott, and direct resistance (Swaraj). Factional tensions led to the 1907 Surat Split, with reconciliation achieved at the 1916 Lucknow Session.
• The Gandhian Era (1919–1947): Following the Rowlatt Act and the Jallianwala Bagh massacre (1919), Mahatma Gandhi transformed the organization into a mass-membership grassroots movement through:
• Non-Cooperation Movement (1920–1922)
• Civil Disobedience Movement and Dandi March (1930–1934)
• Quit India Movement (1942)
• Provincial Elections (1937 and 1946):
• Under the Government of India Act 1935, the party won majorities in 1937 in Madras, United Provinces, Central Provinces, Bihar, and Orissa, forming coalition ministries in Bombay and NWFP.
• In the 1946 provincial elections, it won 923 of 1,585 provincial assembly seats, providing the political core that constituted the Constituent Assembly of India.

2. General Election Performance (1951 to Present)

1. 1951–52 (1st Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Jawaharlal Nehru
• Seats Won / Total: 364 out of 489
• Popular Vote Share: 44.99%
• Political Result: Absolute Single-Party Majority

2. 1957 (2nd Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Jawaharlal Nehru
• Seats Won / Total: 371 out of 494
• Popular Vote Share: 47.78%
• Political Result: Absolute Single-Party Majority

3. 1962 (3rd Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Jawaharlal Nehru
• Seats Won / Total: 361 out of 494
• Popular Vote Share: 44.72%
• Political Result: Absolute Single-Party Majority

4. 1967 (4th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Indira Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 283 out of 520
• Popular Vote Share: 40.78%
• Political Result: Narrow Majority; first regional setbacks across northern states

5. 1971 (5th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Indira Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 352 out of 518
• Popular Vote Share: 43.68%
• Political Result: Two-Thirds Landslide Majority on the "Garibi Hatao" platform

6. 1977 (6th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Indira Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 154 out of 542
• Popular Vote Share: 34.52%
• Political Result: First national defeat; Janata Party formed government under Morarji Desai

7. 1980 (7th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Indira Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 353 out of 529
• Popular Vote Share: 42.69%
• Political Result: Decisive return to power following the collapse of the Janata Party

8. 1984 (8th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Rajiv Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 404 out of 514 (increased to 415 after delayed Assam and Punjab polls in 1985)
• Popular Vote Share: 49.01%
• Political Result: Highest parliamentary seat tally and vote share in Indian history

9. 1989 (9th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Rajiv Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 197 out of 529
• Popular Vote Share: 39.53%
• Political Result: Emerged as single largest party but lost power to the National Front coalition led by V.P. Singh

10. 1991 (10th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: P.V. Narasimha Rao
• Seats Won / Total: 232 out of 521 (eventually reached 244)
• Popular Vote Share: 36.50%
• Political Result: Minority government formed; initiated landmark economic liberalization reforms

11. 1996 (11th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: P.V. Narasimha Rao
• Seats Won / Total: 140 out of 543
• Popular Vote Share: 28.80%
• Political Result: Fell to second place behind the BJP; supported the United Front government from outside

12. 1998 (12th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Sitaram Kesri
• Seats Won / Total: 141 out of 543
• Popular Vote Share: 25.82%
• Political Result: Remained in opposition; Atal Bihari Vajpayee formed the NDA government

13. 1999 (13th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Sonia Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 114 out of 543
• Popular Vote Share: 28.30%
• Political Result: Reached its lowest seat tally up to that date; NDA returned to office

14. 2004 (14th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Sonia Gandhi / Manmohan Singh
• Seats Won / Total: 145 out of 543
• Popular Vote Share: 26.53%
• Political Result: Formed the United Progressive Alliance (UPA-I) coalition under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

15. 2009 (15th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Manmohan Singh
• Seats Won / Total: 206 out of 543
• Popular Vote Share: 28.55%
• Political Result: Retained power and formed UPA-II with an expanded seat count

16. 2014 (16th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Rahul Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 44 out of 543
• Popular Vote Share: 19.31%
• Political Result: Historic low; failed to secure the mandatory 10% seats needed to claim the official Leader of Opposition title

17. 2019 (17th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Rahul Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 52 out of 543
• Popular Vote Share: 19.49%
• Political Result: Minor gain of 8 seats; remained in opposition without Leader of Opposition status

18. 2024 (18th Lok Sabha)

• Leader / Prime Minister: Mallikarjun Kharge / Rahul Gandhi
• Seats Won / Total: 99 out of 543
• Popular Vote Share: 21.19%
• Political Result: Rebounded within the INDIA alliance; officially reclaimed the Leader of Opposition position

3. State Assembly Performance and Long-Term Decline

Uttar Pradesh (Total Assembly Seats: 403)

• 1980: 309 seats won
• 1985: 269 seats won
• 1989: 94 seats won
• 1991: 46 seats won
• 1996: 33 seats won
• 2007: 22 seats won
• 2012: 28 seats won
• 2017: 7 seats won
• 2022: 2 seats won (2.33% popular vote share)

Bihar (Total Assembly Seats: 324 before year 2000, 243 after Jharkhand creation)

• 1980: 241 seats won
• 1985: 196 seats won
• 1990: 71 seats won
• 1995: 29 seats won
• 2005: 9 seats won
• 2010: 4 seats won
• 2015: 27 seats won (in alliance with RJD and JD-U)
• 2020: 19 seats won (as junior partner to RJD)

West Bengal (Total Assembly Seats: 294)

• 1972: 216 seats won
• 1977: 20 seats won (ousted by the CPI-M-led Left Front)
• 1987: 40 seats won
• 1996: 82 seats won
• 2001: 26 seats won (following Mamata Banerjee's departure to establish TMC)
• 2011: 42 seats won (in alliance with TMC)
• 2016: 44 seats won (in tactical alliance with the Left Front)
• 2021: 0 seats won

Tamil Nadu (Total Assembly Seats: 234)

• 1962: 139 seats won (last independent single-party majority)
• 1967: 51 seats won (defeated by the DMK; has remained a junior partner ever since)
• 1989: 26 seats won
• 2006: 34 seats won (provided external support to the DMK government)
• 2016: 8 seats won
• 2021: 18 seats won (contested as an alliance partner of DMK)

Andhra Pradesh (Total Assembly Seats: 294 prior to 2014, 175 post-bifurcation)

• 2004: 185 seats won
• 2009: 156 seats won
• 2014: 0 seats won (severe backlash following the bifurcation creating Telangana)
• 2019: 0 seats won
• 2024: 0 seats won

4. Primary Reasons Behind the Erosion of Popularity

A. Social Base Fragmentation (Post-1989)

• Mandalization and OBC Assertion: Following the implementation of the Mandal Commission recommendations in 1990, intermediate backward castes mobilized behind regional leaders such as Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Sharad Yadav, and Nitish Kumar. This ended Congress's grip over rural peasant communities in the northern plains.
• Dalit Migration to BSP: Kanshi Ram and Mayawati organized Scheduled Caste communities into the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), moving millions of loyal Dalit voters away from Congress.
• Shift of Upper Castes to the BJP: Disaffected by caste-based reservations and drawn toward the Ram Janmabhoomi movement, upper castes in northern and western India moved their allegiance to the BJP.
• Minority Disillusionment: The unlocking of the Babri Masjid gates in 1986, the 1989 foundation-stone laying (Shilanyas), and the 1992 demolition alienated Muslim voters, who shifted support to regional formations like the Samajwadi Party, RJD, and Trinamool Congress.

B. Organizational Atrophy and Centralization

• Dismantling of Grassroots Democracy: Starting in the early 1970s under Indira Gandhi, internal party organizational elections were largely abandoned. Chief ministers and district chiefs were appointed by the "High Command" in New Delhi rather than chosen through democratic state-level votes.
• Major Regional Splits: Top state leaders with large personal followings left to build their own regional parties after clashes with the central leadership:
• Mamata Banerjee established the All India Trinamool Congress in West Bengal (1997).
• Sharad Pawar founded the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra (1999).
• Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy launched the YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh (2011).
• Himanta Biswa Sarma left in Assam (2015), dismantling the party's northeast apparatus.

C. Credibility Shocks and Governance Controversies

• The Bofors Case (1987–1989): Kickback allegations involving the Swedish Bofors artillery gun deal dismantled Rajiv Gandhi’s anti-corruption image and provided the opposition under V.P. Singh with a unifying national campaign issue.
• Second-Term Anti-Incumbency (UPA-2, 2009–2014): Allegations around 2G spectrum allocation, coal block allocations, and the 2010 Commonwealth Games, accompanied by double-digit food inflation, created strong anti-incumbency. This directly fueled the 2011 India Against Corruption movement, creating an opening for the BJP's 2014 national victory.

D. Ideological and Strategic Inconsistencies

• The Dual Compromises of 1985–1986: By using its parliamentary majority to nullify the Supreme Court's Shah Bano judgment via the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Divorce) Act 1986, and then encouraging the opening of the Babri Masjid locks to mollify Hindu groups, Congress alienated both communities. It gave the BJP ammunition to campaign against "minority appeasement" while failing to win long-term Hindu support.
• Narrative Deficit in Bipolar States: In states with direct two-party battles against the BJP (such as Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh), Congress struggled to counter the BJP's coordinated blend of cultural nationalism, welfare delivery, and organizational discipline.