A must read analysis for us to understand why is this a monetary surgical strike – Modi's great 2000 Rupee Note Trick
(If you find this helpful and interesting, request you to please do share so that doubts of anybody around introduction of Rs. 2000 currency notes are assuaged)
I was contemplating about writing this post since yesterday, was a bit perplexed if I should.
Its about Modi's great Rs. 2000 Note Trick which Modi has played with such brilliant flair that it has stumped everybody (many of his supporters as well).
There is caveat to the below Analysis, which is, you need to read completely to understand it
As I'm writing this post, I know this will be a little long but should be interesting to the inquisitive, so please have patience.
To understand this trick, you must first understand the characteristics of a surgical strike
Yes a surgical strike and its not an impromptu overnight impulsive reaction.
Its main characteristics are:
1. Meticulous Planning
2. Maximum Damage
3. Very Accurate (Damaging the target while the surrounding suffers very little damage)
4. Sudden Shocking Surprise (without giving any time to the target to understand and save itself)
5. Minimum Collateral Damage
6. Conducted after diversionary tactics
7. Blocking any escape routes
2. Maximum Damage
3. Very Accurate (Damaging the target while the surrounding suffers very little damage)
4. Sudden Shocking Surprise (without giving any time to the target to understand and save itself)
5. Minimum Collateral Damage
6. Conducted after diversionary tactics
7. Blocking any escape routes
In view of the above, demonetizing was precisely a surgical strike on black money . I will not go into more about this phenomenal death blow to Black Money, there are enough articles and analysis. I will focus on something which not many could see in this blitzkrieg. Modi's Great Rs. 2000 Trick.
To understand this trick, I wont take you too far back but 24th September 2016, Location Kozhikode, event BJP National Council's meeting. Modi was soft in speech and made an appeal to Pakistani people not to get into fight with each other but fight poverty. There were mocking meme's of "Kahan Gayi 56 inch ki chaati". Indian express talked about strategic restraint.
3 Days later, *drumroll* surgical strike. Pakistani who thought nothing is gonna happen were caught completely off guard. They even had prepared their launch pads in final stages to launch terrorists in India as they seemed convinced Modi won't do anything.
Fast forward to 6th November, Social media, WhatsApp were filled with messages & images of new Rs. 2000 with NGC, notice carefully, no news about new Rs. 500 but only 2000 .. Why? Why only 2000 .. just coz 500 was already there? but isn't a news about a new 500 note exciting enough to be shared on WhatsApp .. why there was no news about it.
Now I will start unraveling the plan.
First. How easy do you believe is it to leak an image of new currency and that too in good detail without any action, without any reaction from govt.? Isn't it such a huge security blunder? Isn't that a matter of concern?
Govt acted so cool .. not even a news report that why such a thing happened.. Well coz it was done by RBI (Govt.) itself .. They leaked out the Image of Newly minted Rs. 2000 with the rumour of a NGC Nano GPS Chip on it to track it even 130 meters below ground. But why would they do that .. also why not put a news about 500 with a chip as well .. what did the govt. want to achieve with the tactic?
3 Days later, *drumroll* .. Surgical strike Conducted on Black Money (9th Nov) .. No one could have dreamt that 500 and 1000 Rupee Note would be stopped coz 2000 is a new denomination .. an Addition not a replacement. And news about new 500 never came in the market.
You wanted your target which is guilty and nervous (ready) to feel relaxed .. A whiff of new note of existing denomination would have send a chill down the spine so that is why its 2000 and not a Rs. 1000 note. Also with NGC, the culprit feels that okay so govt. is taking measures on new money, nothing is gonna happen to old as its not gonna get replaced (there is no existing 2000 Rupee note to replace.) Its a measure for future notes and my Rs. 500 and Rs. 2000 are safe.
The same is applicable to terrorists and their handlers as well. Who don't want to be tracked with 2000 rupee note, better start stocking 500 and 1000 Rupee notes now.
You may ask why even announce about the 2000 Note then? Recall the characteristics of Surgical Strike, the target knows that 30th September Deadline is over there could be action so it is always better to relax the target and then launch the offensive for maximum accurate damage. (How it would relax has been explained in previous paragraph if that thought crossed your mind).
This was primary objective. Secondary Objective, The culprit is relaxed about new note but aware that this new note with chip wont be easy to hoard (stock) so better remove Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes from market and convert from 100s to 500s and 1000s .. the culprit is in trap.
Tertiary and quite a valid important Objective:
86% of currency in circulation is in denomination of 500 and 1000. The valid white money crunch is going to crush the economy. Introduction of new money would be slow .. you need a high denomination to fill that void (not completely but to some extent). Don't expect too many 2000 rupee notes to be printed, they are just to tackle this emergency situation which govt. did expect to get created.
Now the next question is if its the objective why not leak 2000 image earlier enough for them to stock maximum. Remember, it is secondary objective and longer the time after a relaxing stroke, the more the chance that culprit becomes aware and take evasive measures.
So now .. Who all knew about stopping of existing 500 and 1000 rupee notes? No one except Modi Ji, Arun Jaitley and RBI Gov. I doubt if there is a fourth person who knew about it.
Why not others? How would it matter anyway .. its stopping the existing denomination .. don't need much preparation to remove the existing, what needs planning is introduction of new currency. So phasing out can be done at the drop of the hat and that is what was done without many people being informed about it.
So what about the new Rs. 500 Note? Did the banks know.. Ha Ha .. they did not?
I came across this article in the evening today and it confirmed my .
"They (Bank Heads) had been called to the RBI in the morning to receive a locked currency chest which they were told contained notes of the new 2,000 rupee denomination. They were under strict instructions not to open the chest or speak about it until later that night, according to the Mint newspaper.
It was when they opened it, as PM Modi was speaking, that they learnt about the new 500 rupee note, the paper added."
The banks were told that they should give more Rs. 100 notes and not Rs. 500 or Rs. 1000
Another line from the article above - "Last week, the RBI had ordered banks to issue more 100 rupee notes but no one seemed to have seen what was coming."
EDIT: RBI had issued a notification for banks to dispense Rs. 100 Notes through ATMs on 2nd November. Thanks to Mohan Kumar for sharing this link
What other unintended but obvious objective did the Rs. 2000 Note trick achieve? Machines in Karachi worked overtime in last three days to print 1000 and 500 as Rs. 2000 would not be easy to print with the NGC chip (they thought would be real, the hoax worked), only to waste their resources and go WTF after the announcement.
"The Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, Research andAnalysis Wing and other intelligence agencies had exposed Pakistan government acquiring ink and paper far in excess of requirement to print Pakistani currency."
The Rs. 2000 trick was a diversionary tactic as well as a trick for black money hoarders to hoard in 500 and 1000 currency notes since 2000 with NGC would not be easy to hoard.
Once you assimilate this one little plan in the whole scheme of things that Modi has tried to checkmate Black Money with, you would only say Modi Sir, You beyond awesome !!!
Bonus Analysis: NDTV Ban was never going to happen, it was just to keep the notorious channel busy in its own affairs trying to garner support while Modi slammed their back and roared "Dhappa" (Chuppan Chuppai)
Share this post if you could understand this, your questions are welcome. (Will try to answer, subject to availability of time and sanity of the question.)
Rahul Aggarwal.
Rahul Aggarwal.
Message forwarded as received: I can stand in a big queue line in temple for my greedy thought.
I can stand in a crowded queue line for a faltoo hero.
I can show my patience at theaters and cricket ground.
But, I feel irritated when i am forced to stand in a line for my country.
The unsung heroes in the current context are the Bankers. They are all slogging. On one side, they have to meet all statutory requirements in such a short notice.
On the other side, they have to handle the customers who are in a state of confusion and panic.
They have to handle these and at the same time, they have to take care of their normal work (monthly targets and KRAs ).
As customers, let us be aware of this and treat our bankers with patience and respect. They are also human beings.
Opinion By a Chartered Accountant
No penalty on high denominations notes deposited into bank if such amount is declared in return of income by paying appropriate tax:
Generally I refrain from expressing any professional opinion on Facebook. However, in view of prevalent panic created by certain media over imposition of penalty on unaccounted cash of high denominations that are deposited into bank, I give my professional opinion as under.
If unaccounted cash or black money are deposited into bank and appropriate tax (maximum 30% plus surcharge) is paid on this additional income, no penalty for under reporting or misreporting can be imposed by assessing officer u/s 270A of Income tax Act, which has been newly introduced from current year. Even, tax payer is not required to substantiate source of income and income can be declared without disclosing head of income. This is because penalty for concealment can be levied only on difference between assessed income and returned income. This view is based on bare reading of section 270A itself. So penalty of 200% under no circumstances can be levied on such income disclosed in return of current year. With due respect, I have to say that The news paper headlines that '200% penalty on unaccounted cash deposits of over ₹ 10 lakh' published in today's Time of India and other media are misleading.
I therefore advise not to sell the notes at discounted prices or deposit the cash into bank accounts of other benami persons in fear of penalty. Further, do not claim any bogus expenses or bogus loss to gain more trouble. Do not manipulate accounts by creating bogus cash on hand. Be good citizen and pay tax honestly to buy peace by building capital. This disclosure by paying tax at maximum of 30% will be advantageous compared to IDS where rate of tax was 45%.
One of Facebook friend write as follows
After demonetization of Re.500/1000 notes by Modi Government, mixed reaction from all wake of life is seen. But, I am astonished about the reactions of Political Stardoms, who are simply barking against such drastic step taken by the government. Though they are barking so much for theirs own personal losses suddenly , very few takers are available of their cries. One thing is sure that whatever NaMo did became a headache for black money hoarders including big bizmen and politicians. this may also affect next polls in various states. General public also suffered due to small notes cash crunch and critical to the govt. in last two days, It is also noticed from various sources that 3 lacs or so followers of NaMo were unfollowed. which is duly taken as joke by various political parties especially congress members, who are pleased with the erosion of follower base in NaMo account and twitting with much fanfare. But what the long effect of this decision? To my observation and general practices of monetary aspects ,we may get some social as well mental benefits :
1. Black money stashed by the terrorist organisations, which are duly converted from Fake currency notes, are the worst sufferers. They must not get enough chance even till Dec to convert their money into acceptable notes. because, government is keeping good track on deposit of monies in various accounts and may catch hold the culprit on suspicion.
2. Big Babus (who are rulling the people in the name of Civil servants) and their subordinates upto a certain level are worried lot as on date. They are unable to digest the decisions and are in dire straits as on date. their one unnoticed step may bring them to false position.
3. Big businessmen, including hawala traders and jeweler traders are also in dilemma as how to use the black money stashed in their coffers, which will become of no use after some days.
4. And last but not the least, the smart politicians from all parties including the ruling BJP are moros as on date and unable to utilize their earned property through illegal means.
Public is also facing big problem due to inadequate arrangements made by the government. But , to my opinion, one thing is sure that the same public will be benefited after very short time , say after 2 quarters, according to some renowned economist. Yes, some economists, who are really Modi Hater, are criticizing before hand but half heartedly, because they also know the impact of this sudden decision by the government.
To my opinion, public friends should cooperate with the government and the problem they are facing are just for a few days. As per RBI assurance, availability of small notes will be normal by 16th Nov, for which the security presses are working day and night to meet public requirement.
And last, but not the least, hats off to our bankers, who are at the service of the nation at all time and this time too doing efficient job right more than 12 hours a day, which even a factory worker do not serve.
It is also painful to see that even after servicing the people tirelessly the bankers are wooed, scolded, manhandled and abused by general public at the behest of some small type goons and political members, who have the duty to instigate the poor people only to make a good buck out of people dissatisfaction.
My Appeal re-submitted here for your convenience
dkj
A section of people in media and social sites and a section of people from Pakistan is bent upon weakening Mr. Narendra Modi Prime Minister of India and BJP government by hook or crook. It is this section which has been injecting negativity in minds of common men since long. They are so much prejudiced that their eyes are unable to see good steps taken by Modi government in his tenure as PM of this country.
Persons of this section used to demand stern action against terrorists and Pakistani actors sponsored disturbances and challenge 56" Chest of Modi and when government took step of surgical strike to teach lessons to enemy , they against started criticizing and questioning veracity of surgical strike. Similarly some people use to demand action against black money holders and fake money distributors and when Modi took effective step of demonetisation of high value notes , they are again trying to question it by waging an emotional war in the name of common men. They do not hesitate even in glorifying an illegal act of suicide . They want to divert and puncture the agenda of good governance and growth somehow or the other.
People of this section is least bothered of their country . They are not bothered of India's peace, safety,security,and growth of India. They do not like communal harmony. They are not at all worried for welfare and comfort of common men. They are spreading misinformation and creating confusion on all steps taken by Modi and trying to put blame on Modi for all petty events. They see vote bank even in suicide,rape and accidental events taking place . They do not find merit in demonetization of high value notes which enables a government to deal with monster of terrorism, corruption, drug trafficking, price rise, nasal activities, menace of fake notes, giants holding bags of black money and so on. They do not like to follow civic sense, neither do they understand rules of good politics nor they to follow and adopt sound principles of good economics.
So called Secular parties which are out of power are trying to use such type of negativity for their vote bank. Rahul and Digvijay Singh like politicians can go to any extent to occupy first position. Kejriwal who earned lot of popularity during his fight against corruption has also become victim of cheap politics. I do not know how and when they will succeed in their plan, but as of now they are called as comedian of modern time.
Some of our friends too are also victim of this negative propaganda spearheaded by mischievous section of society and media against Modi government. They understand or not about politics and economics of government , I do not know and God knows better, but they feel proud and elevated in forwarding and liking of all negative messages true or false they receive in their Facebook , WhatsApp or Twitter account . They act as if they are forwarding agent of mischievous section of society. They do not think it necessary even to verify the correctness of such information and immediately forward in their groups and to their friends. God bless them. These people are undoubtedly adding fuel to fire and knowingly or unknowingly , willingly or unwillingly they too become part of dirty campaign let loose by some ill-motivated persons, parties and groups.
I am however dead sure that Modi will prove to be an asset for the country, he will prove as God for the the sake of love and peace and a Messiah for welfare of common men. Modi id doing his best for overall development of the country, for welfare of poor and downtrodden class of society, for safety and security of the country and for brightening the image of the country inside and outside the country.
Haters of Modi will also realize the fact sooner or the later and lovers will grow in number gradually. This is my firm belief. As per my assessment of performance of the present government during last two and half years, this government has acquired number one position in the list of all past governments.God bless all .
Lastly I would like to say that positive criticism is the beauty of democracy, Critic helps in improving the laws ,rules, policies and their way of execution. Criticism by others helps in improving the personality of an individual and an organization .Every one has the right to assess and speak about good and bad points of the government. There is no point in crying over non issues like Modi wears a Muslim cap or not, about wife and mother of Modi, about Rs.15 lac to be credited in account , about dresses Modi wears , about foreign visits of Modi etc if they have got no significance from any angle of consideration in governance .
I like to say that one should desist from making useless comments . On should refrain from blindly forwarding all messages. One must apply own brain and skill to assess pros and cons of the matter, merit and demerits and finally the consequences of forwarding a fake and ill- motivated message.
It is known to all that in the eyes of law. “To commit crime, to promote crime and to bear with it , all are part of illegal and undesirable activities only”.
If you do not have any thing to contribute for betterment of the country and for your colleagues , you should at least avoid becoming party of anti-national and anti-common men activities of others.
I request my media friends too to avoid spending time on fake news and false informations and refrain from doing anything which may result in loss to the country or to any individual or group.
God bless you
With regards and respect to all
Danendra Jain
Hi,
ReplyDeleteMy name is Divay Makkad and the article "Modi's Great 2000 Rupee Note Trick" is my original article and not of any Rahul Agarwal.
Kindly make the necessary correction.
Here is the link to the original "Modi's great 2000 rupee note trick" article:
https://www.facebook.com/div.makkad/posts/10155500128338378
And my article on blog:
subsepehlebharat.com/uncategorized/wondering-why-modi-introduced-2000-note-read-this/