Shocking! 47 million young Indians are jobless-By Shankaran Srinivasan
The government has not shifted the focus of the Indian economy quickly enough to meeting these young people's expectations about their jobs.
Census data released on Tuesday contained a shocking piece of information: that 47 million young Indians, under the age of 24, were jobless, and looking for work.
That's 20 per cent of the youth population. This is hard data confirming a fact that has long been anecdotal: that India has a jobs crisis.
The picture that emerges from the Census data is intriguing: many workers are now "marginal" - in other words, they work for between three and six months in a year
That's 20 per cent of the youth population. This is hard data confirming a fact that has long been anecdotal: that India has a jobs crisis.
The picture that emerges from the Census data is intriguing: many workers are now "marginal" - in other words, they work for between three and six months in a year
The strange thing is that this has come in a decade when, first, growth rates have been high; and, second, wages, particularly rural ones, have seen a solid and sustained increase in real terms.
How can these factors be simultaneously explained?
How can these factors be simultaneously explained?
Indian employment has always been a puzzle.
Partly this is because the easy intuition about unemployment and employment in macroeconomics, developed for mature industrial economies, simply does not translate well in the Indian context.
Partly this is because the easy intuition about unemployment and employment in macroeconomics, developed for mature industrial economies, simply does not translate well in the Indian context.
In India, unemployment is a luxury. Many people cannot even afford to stay at home and look for suitable work - the "search costs" of finding a job they like are unaffordable, given their wealth.
This can lead to many counter-intuitive results. For example, it is possible that states doing particularly well also see an increase in the number of unemployed - simply because higher income levels can mean the ability to look for more congenial work instead of staying in a job for reasons of subsistence. In some cases, social preferences intervene.
Families that grow richer in some parts of the country expect their female members to stay at home, for example. But young people's expectations have also changed. Over the past decade, there has been an enormous expansion in secondary education, partly driven by government policy on education and rural incomes.
Many young men and women in India's rural areas have emerged from school - but have no intention of going to work on the farm. Instead, they want something that approximates white-collar work.
This might explain the persistent increase in rural wages even in the presence of rural unemployment. Again, this is a counter-intuitive product of increased incomes and education. This is not to say that the large number and proportion of marginal workers should not be a cause for concern.
It reveals, in particular, that the government has not shifted the focus of the Indian economy quickly enough to meeting these young people's expectations about their jobs.
Both the government and the private sector have failed in creating useful skills quickly enough. Nor has a manufacturing sector emerged, which could act as a sink for this excess labour.
Indeed many are asking whether it is not too late for India altogether to create a manufacturing sector that could provide mass employment.
But what is certain is that unless this vast mass of young people are provided with some form of more regular employment that meets their expectations, social tensions will only grow.
This can lead to many counter-intuitive results. For example, it is possible that states doing particularly well also see an increase in the number of unemployed - simply because higher income levels can mean the ability to look for more congenial work instead of staying in a job for reasons of subsistence. In some cases, social preferences intervene.
Families that grow richer in some parts of the country expect their female members to stay at home, for example. But young people's expectations have also changed. Over the past decade, there has been an enormous expansion in secondary education, partly driven by government policy on education and rural incomes.
Many young men and women in India's rural areas have emerged from school - but have no intention of going to work on the farm. Instead, they want something that approximates white-collar work.
This might explain the persistent increase in rural wages even in the presence of rural unemployment. Again, this is a counter-intuitive product of increased incomes and education. This is not to say that the large number and proportion of marginal workers should not be a cause for concern.
It reveals, in particular, that the government has not shifted the focus of the Indian economy quickly enough to meeting these young people's expectations about their jobs.
Both the government and the private sector have failed in creating useful skills quickly enough. Nor has a manufacturing sector emerged, which could act as a sink for this excess labour.
Indeed many are asking whether it is not too late for India altogether to create a manufacturing sector that could provide mass employment.
But what is certain is that unless this vast mass of young people are provided with some form of more regular employment that meets their expectations, social tensions will only grow.
Over 20% of young Indians are jobless-
Times of India-2nd of July 2014
NEW DELHI: More than 20 per cent of Indians in the 15-24 age group were jobless and seeking work, according to startling data released on Tuesday by Census 2011.
In absolute terms, this army of unemployed youth is staggeringly huge — around 4.7 crore of which 2.6 crore were men and 2.1 crore women.
These definitive figures for 2011 reveal the deep and pervasive unemployment that has gripped India since the past decade even as economic growth was zooming along at over 8 per cent per annum for most of this period.
In absolute terms, this army of unemployed youth is staggeringly huge — around 4.7 crore of which 2.6 crore were men and 2.1 crore women.
These definitive figures for 2011 reveal the deep and pervasive unemployment that has gripped India since the past decade even as economic growth was zooming along at over 8 per cent per annum for most of this period.
The figures include the entirely unemployed and marginal workers who get work only for up to six months in a year.
Overall, the unemployment rate among the working age population in the 15-59 age group was a worrisome 14.5 per cent, including marginal workers seeking work.
In the 25-29 age group, the unemployment rate was nearly 18 per cent. Even among those in the 30-34 age group, nearly 6 per cent were unemployed, numbering over 1.2 crore.
Overall, the unemployment rate among the working age population in the 15-59 age group was a worrisome 14.5 per cent, including marginal workers seeking work.
In the 25-29 age group, the unemployment rate was nearly 18 per cent. Even among those in the 30-34 age group, nearly 6 per cent were unemployed, numbering over 1.2 crore.
Dalits, adivasis struggle with rampant joblessness
Among dalits, unemployment rate in the working age population of 15-59 years was a shocking 18 per cent, much higher than the general population. Among adivasis, the unemployment rate was even higher at over 19 per cent. These are the two most marginalized sections of Indian society and clearly they are struggling with widespread unemployment.
Inexplicably, census authorities have not released data for 15-19 years and other such five-year age groups for scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, like it has been done for the general population. In the 15-34 age group, 21 per cent dalits and 22 per cent adivasis were reported to be unemployed. This includes the 'youth' age group of 15-24 years but in later years, more persons should be finding employment.
One myth busted by this age-wise data on workers and non-workers is that young women do not want to work either because of family responsibilities or social disapproval. While the bulk of non-workers are indeed women, among younger women 20 to 29 years of age, the share of those seeking work is the same as for men in the same age group — slightly over 20 per cent. This is the new generation that is relatively better educated and wants to build a better life, but the opportunities are not there.
Among dalits, unemployment rate in the working age population of 15-59 years was a shocking 18 per cent, much higher than the general population. Among adivasis, the unemployment rate was even higher at over 19 per cent. These are the two most marginalized sections of Indian society and clearly they are struggling with widespread unemployment.
Inexplicably, census authorities have not released data for 15-19 years and other such five-year age groups for scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, like it has been done for the general population. In the 15-34 age group, 21 per cent dalits and 22 per cent adivasis were reported to be unemployed. This includes the 'youth' age group of 15-24 years but in later years, more persons should be finding employment.
One myth busted by this age-wise data on workers and non-workers is that young women do not want to work either because of family responsibilities or social disapproval. While the bulk of non-workers are indeed women, among younger women 20 to 29 years of age, the share of those seeking work is the same as for men in the same age group — slightly over 20 per cent. This is the new generation that is relatively better educated and wants to build a better life, but the opportunities are not there.
This finding is in consonance with the fact that women are getting married at a later age, and having children at an even later age than before.
In urban areas, nearly 18 per cent of the 15-24 age group is seeking work while in rural areas the share rises to over 21 per cent. In both rural and urban areas, the share of young women seeking work is high at 17 per cent and 20 per cent respectively. So, young women wanting to work is no longer just an urban phenomenon.
The new census data also shows how the lack of social security for senior citizens and low economic status is forcing them to continue working despite their advanced age. Nearly 3.3 crore persons of 60 years age or more are employed as main workers, that is, full-time regular employment. Besides these, another one crore senior citizens work as marginal workers. The bulk of elderly workers are male.
Some 18.5 lakh persons of age over 80 years are still working as regular workers and another 6.5 lakh octogenarians eke out a living as ill-paid marginal workers.
In urban areas, nearly 18 per cent of the 15-24 age group is seeking work while in rural areas the share rises to over 21 per cent. In both rural and urban areas, the share of young women seeking work is high at 17 per cent and 20 per cent respectively. So, young women wanting to work is no longer just an urban phenomenon.
The new census data also shows how the lack of social security for senior citizens and low economic status is forcing them to continue working despite their advanced age. Nearly 3.3 crore persons of 60 years age or more are employed as main workers, that is, full-time regular employment. Besides these, another one crore senior citizens work as marginal workers. The bulk of elderly workers are male.
Some 18.5 lakh persons of age over 80 years are still working as regular workers and another 6.5 lakh octogenarians eke out a living as ill-paid marginal workers.
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